Now that Scotland has voted to stay in the United Kingdom, a potential crisis have averted. UK Prime Minister David Cameron promptly vowed to give English lawmakers more say on laws that only affect England and take steps to cut the influence of Scottish lawmakers in the House of Commons in London. Even though this has been years in the making, Cameron waited until after the results were in to announce the punishment.
That will teach those rebellious Scots not to mess with The Crown (see the excellent TV series “Outlander” for color).
The UK currency is back to 2013 levels relative the US dollar.
So, North Sea oil is safely in the hands of the UK again and all is back to “normal” (if you consider being an occupied land as “normal.)”
Meanwhile, here is the Euro against the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, the 4 Little Pigs of Europe (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) continue to stagnate with GDP growth ranging from 1.20% for Spain (the same as Germany!) to -0.30% for Greece. At least the PIGS aren’t as bad as Ukraine and Cyprus. And France seems to be uber-week.
These dismal GDP readings in spite of very low sovereign rates. Something isn’t working.
On the other hand, former breakaway country Ireland is experiencing 7.70% GDP growth while their former occupiers the UK are experiencing 3.20% GDP growth.
So while the UK maintained control over Scotland, the UK is advised to remain as independent from European Union as possible. As UKIP Leader Nigel Farage often reminds us.
By the way, had Scotland vote for independence, their Prime Minister, Alex Salmond, would have pushed Scotland to join the European Union. After the independence vote failed and Salmond’s dreams of Scotland in the EU fizzled, he resigned as Prime Minister.
UKIP’s Nigel Farage enjoying a cigar.
Earlier today, the Federal Reserve released its latest Z.1 (Flow of Funds) report for the second quarter. The record new worth was driven largely by the growth in stock market prices.
The bad news? The stock market may simply be a bubble inflated by hot air from The Fed via quantitative easing.
If there really is record net worth (and people believe it), why are so few households applying for mortgage loans?
Income growth has stagnated, but the stock market is roaring along. Yet, no Hindenburg Omen.
Yet we do have Fed Chair Janet Yellen pumping all the air into the stock market blimp that she can.
So much for another recovery summer. Housing starts declined by 14.4% in August.
Housing starts are near the lows since 1958.
5+ (multifamily) starts are down 31.5% while single unit starts only fell 2.43%.
Of course, housing starts are not skyrocketing because …. household income and wages are not skyrocketing. Quite the contrary.
I wonder if Homebuilders are a little overconfident?
Former Goldman Sachs Head of Housing Research says that “House prices are 12% overvalued today. They have already started to decline. Today’s misvaluation matches the excess of 2006-07, just before the Great Recession.
House prices are 12% overvalued today. They have already started to decline. Today’s misvaluation matches the excess of 2006-07, just before the Great Recession. Since World War II home prices have been tightly correlated to income and mortgage rates (R2 = 96%). Investors/cash purchasers, which make up 50% of home sales, have driven real estate volatility to unrivaled levels in trackable history. As public policy makers debate seminal decisions on “forward guidance” and unconventional monetary stimulus we note that each 1% increase in rates drops home valuations by another 4%; at a 2% fed funds rate, where fed officials and investors expect to be by the end of 2016, the overvaluation equals 20%. Respectfully, the United States can not afford another housing driven recession. The facts and correlations – the tenets of probabilities – suggest it is more likely than not that home prices fall 15% in the next three years.
We do know that house prices are rising rapidly (though slowing) and that increase is not associated with a rise in real median household income (which is stagnant).
What is bubbling house prices is lower interest rates that benefit investors more so than the traditional middle class homebuyer. But The Federal Reserve is forecasting a rise in The Fed Funds Rate!
Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve officials raised their median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2015 to 1.375 percent, compared with 1.125 percent in June.
The rate will be at 3.75 percent at the end of 2017, the Fed said today for the first time as it included that year in its Summary of Economic Projections. That is the same as Fed officials’ longer-run estimate. The median estimate in June for the long-run fed funds rate was also 3.75 percent.
So, what if The Fed Funds Rate rises to 3.75% at the end of 2017? If wages remain stagnant, there could be “Trouble In River City.” Or Potomac City (aka, Washington DC).
We MAY have Trouble In River City if real wages don’t start rising in a serious fashion.
Homebuilders are the most confident than they have been in 9 years, likely because of the prospects for growth in rental demand (spurred by stagnant incomes and declining labor force participation).
Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — Confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose in September to a nine-year high, showing the industry is gaining ground and will be a source of momentum for the economy.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment measure climbed to 59, exceeding the highest estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, from 55 in August, the Washington-based group reported today. Readings above 50 mean more respondents said conditions were good.
Improvement in the job market and low interest rates spurred buying interest this month, as the group’s index of foot traffic through model homes jumped to the highest level since October 2005. Faster wage gains would provide extra momentum for residential real estate, which has seen lackluster demand from first-time buyers.
Improvement in the job market? Are they kidding us? How about declining labor force participation and stagnant wage and income growth? Not to mention flat-lined mortgage purchase applications.
I would say that the enthusiasm is more about providing RENTAL housing than single-family detached housing.
Mortgage purchase applications rose 7.9% from the previous week, but it is simply a repeat of the post-Labor Day surge we experienced last year … and the year before … and … Be careful of pundits that proclaim this is the turning point. It isn’t!
Mortgage applications increased 7.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 12, 2014. The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.
The NON seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 14 percent from one week earlier! But this jump is a repeat of last year’s post Labor Day surge. Mortgage purchase applications remain down 10% from last year at the same time.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier and remain in hibernation. Notice the slow increase in real median household income in 2013 and the decline in average wage earnings growth (YoY) which is down 50% since 2007. It is difficult for many borrowers to quality for debt-to-income (DTI) under these circumstances.
And there is a Loan-to-Income (LTI) problem with rapidly rising home prices … again. Note that real median household income is below where it was during the housing bubble.
The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week. Do I detect a trend??
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 4.36 percent, the highest level since June 2014, from 4.27 percent, with points decreasing to 0.20 from 0.25 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Face it. Mortgage applications have flatlined. The economy is not improving fast enough in terms of wages and income to support a middle-class housing recovery.
China, worried about credit and economic growth, going “Full Fed” and providing $81.4 billion of liquidity to their banks.
Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose and commodities rallied on a report that China’s central bank is boosting stimulus measures. The dollar fell on bets the Federal Reserve won’t be in a hurry to raise rates.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.8 percent at 4 p.m. in New York, the biggest gain in a month.
Copper rallied the most in 13 months and U.S. crude surged 2.1 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.3 percent, while emerging-market equities advanced after eight declines. Treasury 10-year note yields were little changed at 2.59 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.3 percent.
China provided 500 billion yuan ($81.4 billion) of liquidity to the country’s five biggest banks as Premier Li Keqiang steps up stimulus to support economic growth, Sina.com reported. Wall Street Journal reporter Jon Hilsenrath said in a Web video that he thinks Fed policy makers will maintain the pledge to keep benchmark overnight rates low for a “considerable time” after the bank ends its bond purchases known as quantitative easing.
So, China has gone “Full Fed.”
Never go “Full Fed.”