Globe Drowning In Debt As US GDP Remains Sub 1 Percent Growth

We are a few short days away from June 2015 and it will be 6 years since The Great Recession ended (according to the National Bureau of Economic Research or NBER). And real USA GDP growth still stinks.

According to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015, the forecast was 0.8 percent on May 26, up slightly from 0.7 percent on May 19, but still below 1.0 percent.

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At the same time, the globe is drowning in debt. While the UK and Japan are in the worst shape (near 500% debt-to-GDP), the USA is no slouch at 289% debt-to-GDP.


While low economic growth coupled with staggering debt load is bad enough, we then have the wizards of Constitution Ave talking about raising interest rates before the end of the year.

What could go wrong?

We all live in Yellin’s submarine!


The Low Velocity Economy (US Money Velocity At All-time Low)

The velocity of money is a measure of the economic activity. It looks at how many times a unit of currency ($1 in the case of the United States) flows through the economy and is used by the various members of the economy.

In the case of M2 velocity (includes cash and checking deposits (M1) as well as savings deposits, money market mutual funds and other time deposits), it is at an all-time low after peaking in 1998.


An alternative measure of velocity is MZM. MZM represents all money in M2 less the time deposits, plus all money market funds. Like M2 velocity, MZM velocity is at an all-time low.


Here is a chart of MZM velocity against the 10 year constant maturity Treasury rate.


What this chart says is that the economy is not catching fire despite the massive amount of money in circulation.

And wage growth is terrible as well, despite Fed intervention.


Here’s to our policy makers in Washington DC!


April Producer Price Index Experiences Largest Decline Since 2010

So much for re-inflation. Or inflating our way out of our Federal debt problem.


The Producer Price Index for April has been released. And it fell by the most since 2010.


This comes after yesterday’s dismal retail sales report where we discovered that the US Import Price Index by End Use All YoY NSA fell by 10.7 percent.


This is a recovery, right?

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Atlanta Fed: Q2 GDP Forecast Is 0.7 Percent (But The Weather Is Beautiful!)

The weather is beautiful in the Northeast and Midwest USA.

But the Q2 GDP forecast is gloomy. In fact, The Atlanta Fed’s GDP NOW forecast model shows Q2 GDP of only 0.7 percent.

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Here is the breakdown:


I am sure that Joe Lavorgna at Deutsche Bank is overly optimistic. But MY forecast model says something different.

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Mortgage Applications Decline 3.5 Percent From Previous Week

Mortgage applications decreased 3.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 8, 2015.


The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 12.4 percent higher than the same week one year ago.


Of course, mortgage purchase applications remain in the doldrums thanks to declining wage growth. And home prices keep rising!


The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 4.00 percent, its highest level since March 2015, from 3.93 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Whip It! Median Real Wages DOWN 3.4 Percent Since Q1 2010 Despite Massive Fed Intervention

I thought one of the reasons for the massive Federal Reserve intervention back in late 2008 was to increase wages and inflation.

Of course, the unemployment rate has fallen since late 2008 which is great news (except that the U6 unemployment rate is still high at 10.8 percent).


But the real rub is that median real wages are DOWN 3.4 percent since Q1 2010 when the unemployment rate started to fall.


What we have are asset PRICES being whipped up as median real wages deflate.

Whip it, Janet. Whip it into shape!


*Thanks to the wizardry of Jessie from his Cafe Americain blog!

Rebound? Q2 GDP Forecast Remains Gloomy! (0.9 Percent Only)

The talking heads on TV kept saying “Q1 was bad weather, so there should be a BIG pent-up demand in the economy. So Q2 should be gangbusters!


The Atlanta Fed GDP NOW, which correctly forecast the dismal Q1 growth rate of 0.2% QoQ, is now forecasting Q2 GDP growth at a dismal 0.9% QoQ.