This has been a SLOWWWWW economic recovery. Full-time employment is ALMOST back to 2007/2008 levels of full-time employment. However, average wage growth is almost 50% lower than in 2007 despite The Fed not having raised The Fed Funds Target rate since 2006.
One reason that wage growth is so slow is that many of jobs added post-2007 have been lower wage service jobs (e.g., bartenders).
Here is a chart courtesy of Zero Hedge showing bartender growth versus manufacturing job decline.
Someone sent me an email repeating the common meme: “But wage growth will remain slow until unemployment bottoms out!” Not true. The toxic green line shows today’s unemployment rate compared to average YOY wage growth. This “recovery” is the lowest wage rate given the current unemployment rate.
So, let me get this straight. The Fed wants to raise rates in the face of stagnant wage growth and a surge in bartenders.
Here is a photo of Fed Chair Yellen and former Fed Chair Bernanke sharing a beer in front of their favorite bartender.
Hey bartender! This is your recovery!